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dc.contributor.authorRoloff, Lukeen_US
dc.date.accessioned2015-02-11T04:15:09Z
dc.date.available2015-02-11T04:15:09Z
dc.date.created2014-05en_US
dc.date.issued2014-06-06en_US
dc.date.submittedMay 2014en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://jhir.library.jhu.edu/handle/1774.2/37219
dc.description.abstractA systemic shift is occurring in international politics. The rise of China and the real possibility of a multipolar environment in the Asia-Pacific have reawakened structural sources of instability that lay dormant during the unipolar hegemony of the United States. A return to a multipolar environment in the Asia-Pacific threatens to accelerate an emerging power rivalry between the United States and China. This thesis predicts that if current strategies fail to account for the structure of the anarchic international order and the instability inherent therein, the future Sino-U.S. strategic dialogue will succumb to the same historical cycle of mutual misapprehension, distrust, insecurity and conflict that has plagued great power politics. To illustrate how structural instability is negatively affecting regional strategies and force postures, the following chapters will present three hazards that are normally associated with great power politics and structural instability: security dilemmas, balance of power dynamics, and an overly optimistic belief in economic interdependence. Historical case studies are employed in each chapter to exhibit how the effects of a multipolar system and the larger anarchic international order have created instability and conflict throughout history. In each instance, historical parallels emerge between the case studies and the current environment of the Asia-Pacific. The research indicates the very real potential for regional instability as a structural byproduct of China’s rise and a shift in the geopolitical order towards a multipolar environment. By highlighting the strategic calculus surrounding power politics and a state’s drive for security in a multipolar and anarchic environment, this thesis adds a much needed and often-overlooked dimension for deciphering why today’s great power dynamics and a rising China are surrounded by conflict and insecurity. It is not designed as a litmus test or to offer specific policy reforms. The object of this thesis is to highlight how age-old symptoms of structural instability have manifested themselves in the Asia-Pacific, especially in the nascent great power contest between the United States and China. The greatest value of this thesis is to remind policymakers that the nature of the international system still has a profound effect upon state behavior and strategic rationale. The hope is that by incorporating the analysis of previous great power conflicts and forewarning about structural pitfalls, modern strategy in the Asia-Pacific can avoid blithely following the same worn path rife with historical conflict. Chapter Readers and Advisors: Chapter II, Dr. Sarah O’Byrne Chapter III, Dr. Jacob R. Straus Chapter IV, Dr. Jennifer Bachner Program Director Mark Stout, PhD 202.663.5978 Email: mstout4@jhu.eduen_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_US
dc.languageen
dc.publisherJohns Hopkins University
dc.subjectSecurity Dilemmaen_US
dc.subjectBalance of Poweren_US
dc.subjectEconomic Interdependenceen_US
dc.subjectAsia-Pacificen_US
dc.titlePatterns of Instability: The Causes and Consequences of Structural Insecurity and Power Politics in the Asia-Pacific Sphereen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGlobal Security Studiesen_US
thesis.degree.grantorJohns Hopkins Universityen_US
thesis.degree.grantorAdvanced Academic Programsen_US
thesis.degree.levelMastersen_US
thesis.degree.nameM.A.en_US
dc.type.materialtexten_US
thesis.degree.departmentnot listeden_US
dc.contributor.committeeMemberO'Byrne, Sarahen_US
dc.contributor.committeeMemberStraus, Jacob R.en_US
dc.contributor.committeeMemberBachner, Jennifer M.en_US
dc.contributor.committeeMemberStout, Marken_US


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