THE WIDENING GYRE: FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
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Date
2014-12-30
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Johns Hopkins University
Abstract
This thesis focuses on key strategic focal points within Russia’s geopolitical, domestic, and economic realms to better understand Russia’s threat perception, strengths,
and weaknesses at home and abroad.
By doing so this thesis will contribute to the discourse over Russia’s force projection, long-term demographic trends and their potential ramifications, and Russia’s economic future and stability. As a geopolitical
power player, understanding Russia’s national security concerns is critical to mitigating both economic and military conflict and regional strife.
First, this thesis will analyze Russia’s naval resurgence and its trade, naval, and geopolitical relationship with two geopolitically vital areas to Russia’s national interests.
This thesis concludes that Russia’s naval posture is less aggressive in regions where its geopolitical relations are largely based on non-military commerce and more aggressive
where the relationship is based more heavily on military commerce.
Second, this thesis analyzes the insurgency in the Caucasus, which has largely been a localized threat and
not one that has undermined broader Russian national stability. However, as
demographics change, will Russia’s behavior towards this localized insurgency and its broader Muslim population incite a broader Islamic awakening? This thesis concludes
that this is unlikely to happen in the short to medium-term but there exists a possibility in the long-term which is largely dependent on how Russian leadership would deal with a
Muslim majority nation.
Thirdly, this thesis analyzes Russia’s energy based economic model and whether or not Russia will need to shift its oil and gas extraction over the next thirty years. As traditional areas of oil and gas extraction diminish in output, Russia may be unable to properly develop its Arctic resources to make-up for declining extraction in
other regions of the country. The economic impact of dwindling government revenues could destabilize a ruling elite closely tied to the current economic model which is overly reliant on energy export revenues.
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Keywords
Russia, Caucasus, Sanctions, Arctic, Energy Exploration, Naval Posture, Crimea, NATO, Terrorism, Radical Extremists, Mediterranean, Syria, Libya, Iran, Turkey, America, United States: Oil, Natural Gas, Insurgency, Insurgencies, Stability, Putin, Vladimir Putin, Boris Yeltsin, Yeltsin, Medvedev, Obama, Bush, Russian Federation, Chechnya, Chechens, Lavrov, Moscow, Black Sea Fleet, Pacific Fleet, Northern Fleet, Drilling, Fracking