The Internet's Impacts on Power Differentials in Security and Conflict

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Date
2014-06-06
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Johns Hopkins University
Abstract
Through case studies and empirical statistical research, this thesis tests the theory that information and communications technologies (ICT), specifically the Internet, is a casual factor in shifting the global balance of power away from dominant states towards individuals and smaller states. The Internet affords acute advantages to individuals and smaller states, but it has yet to prove decisive against an armed nation state with the will to use violence, particularly in the case of aggressive authoritarian states. This thesis argues that while ICT exposes states to new security threats and a transference in power may be underway, the current evidence suggests that a dominant nation state’s security apparatus is still a more potent force, for now. These conclusions were reached through a holistic examination of ICT’s impact on security through the lenses of state versus state conflict (interstate), citizen-led revolutionary movements (intrastate), and violent non-state actors against the system (“extrastate”). However, this thesis found no conclusive data to support the notion that the Internet is concurrently revolutionizing interstate, intrastate or extrastate conflict to the point whereby a weaker adversary can achieve a desired political outcome through the unique use of cyber tools. While cyberspace adds a new virtual dimension to conflict, much like airpower added a third dimension to military conflict after World War I, cyber weapons have not yet developed to the point where they can replace weaponry in the physical domains. The Internet has neither fundamentally altered human nature nor the desires and competitions that fuel conflict; it may be transforming the experience of conflict, but not necessarily the outcomes. Thesis Readers: Dr. Ariel Roth and Dr. Lee Drutman
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Keywords
internet security
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