Weather-Related Natural Hazards in a Changing Climate: Enhanced Understanding of Risk Through Systems Analysis
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Date
2016-08-29
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Johns Hopkins University
Abstract
Weather-related natural hazards cause significant property damage and loss of life in the U.S. and globally. A better understanding of these risks can lead to more informed decision-making regarding risk management and mitigation. This study focuses on risk from floods and hurricanes and the application of systems engineering approaches to enhance the understanding of these risks. Two types of systems analysis methods are primarily used in this study: data analytics and agent-based modeling (ABM).
The first chapter of this dissertation describes the risks associated with weather-related natural hazards and how these risks are typically simulated and managed. The potential effects of climate change are discussed. The second chapter describes a longitudinal study of power outages associated with Hurricane Isaac in Louisiana. This analysis provides insight on how precipitation and storm surge, along with wind, contribute to power outages in hurricanes. The third chapter presents a data analytic study of basin characteristics and unexpected streamflow outcomes in the Mid-Atlantic Region. A model of probability of flood frequency outcome versus watershed characteristics was developed and used to understand which characteristics are associated with low probability flood frequency results. The fourth chapter describes an agent-based model (ABM) of evolving flood risk, with a case study in Fargo, North Dakota. This work focuses on how the interplay between individual and community behavior and stochastic flood outcomes affects community flood risk over time. The fifth chapter provides a summary of this dissertation work, including major contributions and limitations.
Overall, this work develops new methods for enhanced understanding of risk associated with hurricanes and floods, and provides insight that can lead to improved management of these risks under current and future climate conditions.
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Keywords
Natural hazards, risk analysis, floods, hurricanes, agent-based modeling