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Title:
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A Model of Child Morbidity, Mortality and Health Interventions |
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Author:
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Becker, Stan; Black, Robert E. |
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Abstract:
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A macro model of morbidity and mortality in children under five
years of age is presented. Monthly disease-specific incidence
and case fatality rates form the basis of the model and the
efficacy and coverage of disease-specific interventions alter
these values. In addition, frailty is modeled via relative risks
of mortality based on five groups, determined in the first month
by the birthweight distribution and at later ages by the
proportion of children surviving a given illness who become more
frail and the proportion not ill and with adequate nutrition who
become less frail. A validation of the model was carried out
using data from the comparison and treatment areas of the
Demographic Surveillance System in Matlab, Bangladesh. The model
very closely predicts the observed mortality level. Scenarios
for improvements in coverage of specific interventions in
settings in South Asia, West Africa and Andean South America are
modeled and their effects on mortality gauged. The model
provides a useful tool for those wishing to know the mortality
impact of specified mixes of interventions in a given setting.
Limitations of the model are considered and possible extensions
to address these are discussed. |
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URI:
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http://jhir.library.jhu.edu/handle/1774.2/891
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Date:
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1996 |
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Subject:
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CHILD MORTALITY
CHILD HEALTH
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Series:
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Hopkins Population Center Papers on Population
WP96-06
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