A Model of Child Morbidity, Mortality and Health Interventions

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dc.contributor.author Becker, Stan
dc.contributor.author Black, Robert E.
dc.date.accessioned 2006-08-07T21:24:17Z
dc.date.available 2006-08-07T21:24:17Z
dc.date.issued 1996
dc.identifier.uri http://jhir.library.jhu.edu/handle/1774.2/891
dc.description.abstract A macro model of morbidity and mortality in children under five years of age is presented. Monthly disease-specific incidence and case fatality rates form the basis of the model and the efficacy and coverage of disease-specific interventions alter these values. In addition, frailty is modeled via relative risks of mortality based on five groups, determined in the first month by the birthweight distribution and at later ages by the proportion of children surviving a given illness who become more frail and the proportion not ill and with adequate nutrition who become less frail. A validation of the model was carried out using data from the comparison and treatment areas of the Demographic Surveillance System in Matlab, Bangladesh. The model very closely predicts the observed mortality level. Scenarios for improvements in coverage of specific interventions in settings in South Asia, West Africa and Andean South America are modeled and their effects on mortality gauged. The model provides a useful tool for those wishing to know the mortality impact of specified mixes of interventions in a given setting. Limitations of the model are considered and possible extensions to address these are discussed. en
dc.description.provenance Submitted by David Reynolds (davidr@jhu.edu) on 2006-08-07T21:24:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 WP96-06.pdf: 57697 bytes, checksum: fe32663fd85cf87a9121009c9a9c9096 (MD5) en
dc.description.provenance Approved for entry into archive by David Reynolds(davidr@jhu.edu) on 2006-08-07T21:24:17Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 WP96-06.pdf: 57697 bytes, checksum: fe32663fd85cf87a9121009c9a9c9096 (MD5) en
dc.description.provenance Made available in DSpace on 2006-08-07T21:24:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 WP96-06.pdf: 57697 bytes, checksum: fe32663fd85cf87a9121009c9a9c9096 (MD5) Previous issue date: 1996 en
dc.format.extent 57697 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en_US en
dc.publisher Hopkins Population Center en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Hopkins Population Center Papers on Population en
dc.relation.ispartofseries WP96-06 en
dc.subject CHILD MORTALITY en
dc.subject CHILD HEALTH en
dc.title A Model of Child Morbidity, Mortality and Health Interventions en
dc.type Working Paper en

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